Indonesia's battle against the raging wildfires of 2026 is a desperate one, with the country's rainforests and peatlands under threat. The culprit? A powerful El Nino, a climate phenomenon that brings drier conditions and severe fires. But amidst this crisis, a controversial solution is being proposed: cloud seeding. This technique, which involves sprinkling silver iodide into clouds to trigger precipitation, is rarely used globally to tackle wildfires, but Indonesia believes it can be a game-changer. However, experts and activists question its efficacy and potential environmental impacts.
The urgency of the situation is palpable. Indonesia's Borneo, a region known for its pristine rainforests and protected species, is burning. The government reports over 100,000 hectares burned in the first half of the year, with independent analysis revealing a staggering 285,000 hectares affected by July. This is more than four times the size of Jakarta, and the situation is only expected to worsen with the ongoing El Nino.
Cloud seeding, a weather modification technique, is Indonesia's proposed solution. Meteorologist Safillah Anggie Wahyuni, who has accumulated over 300 flight hours in cloud-seeding operations, believes it can optimize clouds with the potential to produce rain. However, the technique's effectiveness is questionable, especially during the dry season when wildfires peak. Experts argue that the lack of clouds makes cloud seeding less effective, and its efficacy is hard to assess.
The environmental implications of cloud seeding are also a cause for concern. Silver iodide, a key component of the technique, has raised questions about its potential harms and the cost of widespread use. Budi Harsoyo, BMKG weather modification director, acknowledges that cloud seeding is a mitigation effort, not a permanent solution. Despite this, a 2023 study found that a 12-day cloud-seeding operation doubled likely rainfall and eliminated fire hotspots.
Critics argue that cloud seeding ignores the underlying problems, such as the mass conversion of rainforest and peatland. Indonesia's vast tropical peatlands are vulnerable ecosystems that become highly flammable when dry. Fires can smoulder underground and reignite quickly, making them a significant threat. Activists like Uli Arta Siagian from WALHI emphasize the need to protect these ecosystems from development and ensure the state's responsibility in issuing permits in vulnerable areas.
The regional impact of Indonesia's wildfires is also significant. The fires send a choking haze over neighbouring Malaysia and Singapore, causing air pollution spikes and school closures. The haze crisis highlights the interconnectedness of the region and the need for collective action. Indonesia's efforts to combat the fires include cloud seeding, peatland rewetting, satellite monitoring, and ground patrols.
However, the practice of using fire to clear land remains common, especially among smallholders, who are exempt from large-scale plantation bans. The environment minister has called for preventive patrols and legal sanctions, including fines and criminal penalties, to combat illegal burning. The El Nino phenomenon, which typically causes drier conditions in Indonesia, exacerbates the situation, making it a complex challenge.
In conclusion, Indonesia's pursuit of cloud seeding as a solution to the wildfires is a desperate measure, but one that raises questions about its effectiveness and environmental implications. As the country battles the El Nino-driven crisis, a comprehensive approach that addresses the underlying issues, such as land conversion and ecosystem protection, is essential. The future of Indonesia's rainforests and peatlands depends on it, and the world watches with bated breath.
